The total output value of China's rubber industry in 2022 increased by 10% compared with that in 2019 before the epidemic. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, 2022 is still the worst year for industrial profits in the past three years, and also the most difficult year for business operation. What is the overall operation situation of the rubber industry in 2023 after the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control? In this regard, Xu Wenying, president of China Rubber Industry Association, said in an interview with reporters, from the world economic growth forecast downward, overseas economic downside risk is increasing, foreign demand is not optimistic. Rubber enterprises should practice internal skills, seize domestic opportunities, and actively carry out cooperation with enterprises of RCEP member states to achieve sound development.
Last year was the worst year for business
According to the statistics of 361 key member enterprises of China Rubber Industry Association, from January to October 2022, the total output value of rubber industry reached 338.637 billion yuan, an increase of 3.25%; Sales revenue reached 347.783 billion yuan, up by 5.84%; The value of export delivery was 124.066 billion yuan, up 17.03%; The export rate (value) was 35.67%, up 3.41 percentage points; The profit was 10.874 billion yuan, down 13.18%; Profit margin on sales revenue was 4.75%, down 1.06 percentage points.
"As the export of rubber products has maintained a relatively fast growth in the past three years, the total output value of China's rubber industry in 2022 increased by 10 percent compared to 2019 before the epidemic even though affected by the epidemic," he said. But industrial profits fluctuate greatly, and 2022 was the worst year for rubber industry profits in the past three years, Xu said. Among 361 enterprises surveyed by the Chinese Rubber Association, 46 reported losses amounting to 1.165 billion yuan.
This year, exports will be hampered by falling external demand
Xu Wenying said that in the medium to long term, the "Ten new measures" released at the end of last year will have a positive impact on China's economy. However, due to the influence of the epidemic and the complicated and changeable international environment, the development of Chinese rubber industry in 2023 is still highly uncertain.
Xu Wenying pointed out that in terms of domestic conditions in 2022, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 3.8% in the first 11 months, lower than the average growth rate of 6.1% in the same period of the past two years. Retail sales of consumer goods fell 0.1 per cent, slower than the average 4 per cent growth in the same period over the past two years. This means that China's economy still faces certain pressure in the short term, which will bring challenges to the development of China's rubber industry.
"Judging from the trend of import and export since September 2022, China's export growth in recent months has significantly slowed down. "Given the downward revision of the global economic growth forecast, the downside risk of overseas economies is increasing, and foreign demand in 2023 is not optimistic, which will affect our export trade." Xu Wenying pointed out that our rubber industry has a high dependency on foreign countries, and the export rate (value) accounts for more than 1/3, especially the tire industry's export rate (value) is close to 50%. External demand decline and export disruption will have a great impact on our rubber industry.
In addition, the adjustment of global geographical pattern, climate crisis, short-term growth of fossil energy demand, extreme weather and other uncertain factors will also bring a certain impact on the development of rubber industry.
Seek new development opportunities
Xu Wenying believes that although our rubber industry faces many challenges in 2023, we can pay more attention to the following aspects to find new opportunities for development.
First of all, the Central Economic Work Conference concluded on December 16, 2022 made arrangements for economic work in 2023, and made "focusing on expanding domestic demand" the first major task of economic work in 2023, giving priority to recovery and expansion of consumption. Xu Wenying said that 2023 will be an inflection point between domestic demand and external demand, and domestic demand will take over from foreign demand to stimulate the backbone of China's economic recovery, so rubber enterprises should pay more attention to the opportunity of domestic demand recovery.
Secondly, 2023 is the third year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Some provinces and localities will accelerate the implementation of planned projects and new and old infrastructure projects, involving artificial intelligence, quantum information, clean energy, military industry, consumer electronics, medicine, high-end manufacturing and other key fields. Driven by policies, the counter-cyclical adjustment effect of manufacturing investment is prominent, which will continue to promote manufacturing investment, and then benefit the rubber industry.
Once again, pay attention to the new trend of the development of the automobile industry. The rubber industry is closely related to the development of the automobile industry. Seventy percent of the parts in an automobile are related to rubber products. China's auto sales are expected to reach 27.6 million units in 2023, up 3 percent, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Among them, passenger cars are expected to reach 23.8 million units, up 1.3 percent; Commercial vehicles are expected to reach 3.8 million units, up 15%; The number of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 9 million, up 35 percent. "The demand for tyre and automotive rubber products is expected to remain at a high level based on car ownership and current car sales in China." "Xu Wenying said.

"In addition, rubber enterprises should pay close attention to the development of the aviation industry and seek new development opportunities; Actively carry out cooperation with enterprises of RCEP member states, flexibly carry out industrial layout, reduce production costs, and improve the competitiveness of Chinese rubber products; Focus on the analysis of high-end rubber products import purposes and use occasions, research and development of alternatives." "Xu Wenying said

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